Eastern Conference Preview
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
2009-10 record: 50-32
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Delonte West, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody
Big Losses: Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen
Prediction: 50-32; 1st place Atlantic Division
Last season, no one expected the Celtics to do much in the playoffs. Boston was able to shock the basketball world and upset both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, only to fall one game short of handing that same fate to the Los Angeles Lakers. This season many analysts are picking Boston as the favorite in the East. I though am not as optimistic about these Celtics.
Boston wasn’t expected to advance very far in the playoffs based on a lackluster regular season. Don’t get me wrong, 50 wins is impressive, but in the East it’s akin to about a .500 mark in the West. Miami won 47 games last year with a much less talented team than Boston. The Celtics underperformed during the regular season, in part, because they are getting old. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and KG have played a lot of basketball. Pierce is the youngest of the three and at 33 he is entering his 13th NBA season. Like Allen and Garnett, Pierce’s numbers slipped a bit last year and I would expect more of the same this season. I love Rajon Rondo’s game and believe that he will be the key to the Celtics success this year. With the artists formerly known as the Big 3 advancing in age, he will have to contribute even more to keep this team rolling.
I like the addition of Delonte West, who started his career in Boston. When Delonte is right, he is a heck of a basketball player. What I didn’t like though was that Boston let Tony Allen go. Allen was a role player with the Celtics, but always stepped up big when the Celtics needed it most. He and Rasheed Wallace will be sorely missed.
With all of the age issues in Boston, you would think that the Celtics would’ve brought in a wave of young players (similar to what San Antonio did) this summer. The Celtics though chose to compound their age problems by adding two big men whose careers have already arched. Jermaine O’Neal looked awful in the playoffs last season. After averaging better than 13 ppg for Miami last year, he put in a meager 4 points per contest in the playoffs and shot a horrific 20% from the field. It looked as though he just didn’t have anything left in the tank. Shaq looked better than his namesake last season, but you have to wonder why a Hall of Fame player with Shaq’s credentials remained a free agent so long this offseason. Things got so strange that Shaq was actually recruiting himself to be signed by teams in contention (first Atlanta and then San Antonio). Shaq was not without suitors because he is not still talented, but because at this point in his career he has become a distraction. He went to Cleveland to “help the King win a ring”, but Cleveland won 5 fewer games with Shaq than without him. I predict more of the same this year in Boston.
Position battles: Kendrick Perkins will be out until February and while he is gone, Shaq will fill in at center and Jermaine O’Neal will back up Shaq. When Perkins returns from injury there may be a battle for the backup power forward spot. With Shaq coming off the bench at center, Jermaine O’Neal will be in a battle for minutes with Glen Davis as KG’s backup. I expect Davis to win the battle.
Don’t be surprised if… The Celtics don’t advance to the second round of the playoffs this season.
New Jersey Nets
2009-10 record: 12-70
Key Additions: Derrick Favors, Trevor Ariza, Troy Murphy, Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar, Anthony Morrow
Big Losses: Courtney Lee, Yi Jianlian, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes
Prediction: 28-54; 4th place Atlantic Division
After last season, things can only get better in New Jersey. At least the Nets hope so. After striking out with every big name free agent this summer, New Jersey went out and acquired Troy Murphy and Jordan Farmar. The Nets also drafted rookie Derrick Favors with the 3rd overall pick. Those moves should assure that the Nets won’t nearly be as bad this season as they were last year. Outlaw and Farmar will be key contributors as role players, and second year swingman Terrence Williams may be ready for a breakout season. Trust me, this kid can be special.
Center Brook Lopez had a great year individually last year. I expect his numbers to go down a little since he will have Troy Murphy and Derrick Favors playing alongside. Still, Lopez looks like he is the building block for this franchise. Point guard Devin Harris is another story. In just his 7th upcoming season, he looks like he may have peaked already. His scoring, assists and steals were all down last year following his stellar debut season in New Jersey. This year he has to prove to his coach Avery Johnson and the Nets organization that he is the point guard of this team for the foreseeable future. If not, Farmar may end up splitting time at the point.
Position battles: Travis Outlaw was brought in to start but Terrence Williams may move Outlaw to the bench. The team drafted Williams in the 2009 Draft with the 11th pick, and they didn’t spend a pick that high to let him sit. His talent will propel him into the starting lineup by midseason.
Don’t be surprised if… The relationship between Avery Johnson and Devin Harris is rocky. Johnson coached Harris in Dallas and ultimately parted ways with him. Harris will have to show that he has matured since then or he will be on a short leash.
New York Knicks
2009-10 record: 29-53
Key Additions: Amar’e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Ray Felton, Roger Mason, Kelenna Azubuike, Timofey Mozgov, Ronny Turiaf, Landry Fields
Big Losses: David Lee, Al Harrington, Tracy McGrady, Chris Duhon
Prediction: 40-42; 2nd place Atlantic Division
The Knicks finally got their man. Okay, their man was LeBron but hey they finally got a superstar still in his prime to come to New York. Stoudemire was a monster last year in Phoenix and should be even more effective this year playing in the Eastern Conference. He is a throwback player who may become the new Clyde Frazier for the Knicks. He is joined by Anthony Randolph and Ray Felton who also arrived in New York this summer. Randolph is a wiry athletic forward who could flourish playing next to Stoudemire. Felton is not the point guard the Knicks coveted, but should remind New Yorkers of former point guard Mark Jackson (both a little doughy, and both effective distributors). Felton will not be a high scoring point guard, but he can help the Knicks develop a tempo and an identity that has been missing in the Big Apple. Along with Randolph and Stoudemire, he will have Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari to dish the rock to. Felton’s task will be getting this new group to gel as a unit.
If the Knicks starting group is a work in progress, the bench is even more enigmatic. Mozgov is a relative unknown center from Russia who the Knicks signed this summer. He will be the backup center while Eddy Curry continues to wilt on the bench. He will be joined by Roger Mason, Toney Douglas, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Landry Fields and Bill Walker. This unit seems strange because it is not clear who will garner the playing time. Plus, with so many new faces the bench is as unfamiliar as the starters.
Position battles: The bench. Mason and Douglass will fight for minutes behind Felton, and Walker and Fields will battle for the reserve small forward spot. And will the Knicks finally play Eddy Curry? Neither he nor Mozgov has played a minute this pre-season.
Don’t be surprised if… The Knicks decide to use Randolph and Chandler or Gallinari as the main pieces to bring over Carmelo this season. The Knicks upgraded this offseason without question, but I still think they want to make a major splash to contend with the elite teams of this league.
Philadelphia 76ers
2009-10 record: 27-55
Key Additions: Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni, Craig Brackins, Tony Battie
Big Losses: Sam Dalembert, Willie Green, Jason Smith
Prediction: 37-45; 3rd place Atlantic Division
The Sixers had a very productive offseason. First, they drafted Evan Turner out of Ohio State. Turner will start with Andre Iguodala and bring more athleticism to Philly’s lineup. The Sixers also acquired center Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni from Sacramento. Hawes is more offensive minded than Sam Dalembert who he replaces and comes at a smaller price tag. Nocioni is a physical player who will add toughness to the Sixers’ bench. Then the Sixers traded Willie Green and Jason Smith for rookie Craig Brackins. While Brackins won’t make much of an impact this year, clearing Smith and Green from the roster will help. Players like Jason Kapono and Thaddeus Young will be able to get more minutes off of the bench.
While I don’t believe Philly will be good enough to make the playoffs, the team appears to be headed in the right direction. Sometimes unsuccessful teams need to bring in a fresh crop of players to shake things up. That is what the Sixers were able to accomplish.
Position battles: Marreese Speights is coming for Elton Brand’s spot. It’s only a matter of time. Brand signed a huge free agent contract with Philly before woefully underperforming. The Sixers have been hoping for Brand to return to his days as a 20 and 10 contributor, but those days are done. Speights is athletic and hungry and should supplant Brand as the starter at some point during the season.
Don’t be surprised if… The Sixers try to buy Elton Brand out of his deal at some point this season. I think Speights will beat him out and it’s hard to justify bringing a max guy off of the bench. With Brackins in tow, it would make parting with Brand less difficult.
Toronto Raptors
2009-10 record: 40-42
Key Additions: Linas Kleiza, Ed Davis, David Andersen, Leo Barbosa, Solomon Alabi, Julian Wright
Big Losses: Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, Marco Belinelli, Antoine Wright
Prediction: 25-57; 5th place Atlantic Division
The Raptors are clearly in rebuilding mode after losing Chris Bosh. The problem is that they are rebuilding around Andrea Bargnani who is a player without a position. Bargnani is a tweener who does not rebound especially well. He does block shots, but is still not a true power forward. So in building around him Toronto was forced to bring on other frontcourt players who can play more than one position. Linas Kleiza can play either forward spot and Ed Davis can play forward and center. The problem is that neither Kleiza nor Davis has a true position. So you won’t get true back the basket play from Davis or quick slashes to the basket by Kleiza. What you will get is a lot of role confusion. Kleiza is making his return to the NBA this season from Europe and I really like his talent. He led Lithuania this summer at the FIBA championships and showed that he can perform on a big stage. Davis was injured during the offseason, so he may miss the first month of the season. He is a project at this point, and will likely spend the year as a reserve. David Andersen who spent his rookie season in Houston will be the starter at center.
The Raptors’ backcourt is just as confusing as the frontcourt. The team traded point guard Jose Calderon to Charlotte this summer, only to hear that the Bobcats rescinded the trade. DeMar DeRozan, who starts at shooting guard, has yet to hit his NBA stride. Last year he shot a paltry 25% from deep, and averaged just 8 ppg as a starter. He has to show this season that he can be a starter at shooting guard in this league and do more than dunk in spectacular fashion.
There are a few bright spots on the Raptors’ bench. Swingman Sonny Weems has had a solid pre-season and Leo Barbosa and Jarrett Jack have outplayed the guys ahead of them on the depth chart. This will not be a pretty season for the Raptors, but rebuilding seasons are usually not easy to watch.
Position battles: The backcourt pieces in Toronto are not quite set. Jack outplayed Calderon last year and this year may supplant him as the starter. If DeRozan doesn’t show marked improvement, Barbosa or Weems could steal his starting spot.
Don’t be surprised if… The Raptors make a run at Rudy Fernandez. Bryan Colangelo the Raptors GM likes Fernandez and he may try to pry him away from the Blazers. The Blazers need size and rebounding machine Reggie Evans may be the bargaining chip.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
2009-10 record: 41-41
Key Additions: Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Omer Asik, Keith Bogans, Kurt Thomas, CJ Watson
Big Losses: Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, Hakim Warrick, Jannero Pargo
Prediction: 52-30; 2nd place Central Division
The Bulls are back. Chicago pulled off one of the biggest free agent signings this summer, agreeing to terms with All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer. Boozer’s arrival makes this team a legitimate contender. Last year Chicago struggled and finished with a .500 record for the second straight season, before losing in the first round of the playoffs. Yet it was not a lost season. Joakim Noah had the best season of his career, averaging a double-double. Derrick Rose also showed improvements from his Rookie of the Year campaign, increasing his scoring average by 4 ppg. Yet Chicago was average, lacking a true difference maker in the post. Carlos Boozer is that guy. The Bulls haven’t had a 20 and 10 guy since they quizzically traded Elton Brand away 10 years ago. Boozer has a chance to do that this season and beef up a frontline that was undersized last season. His presence should assist the continued development of Rose and Noah who will both benefit from his ability to draw defenders, creating openings on the court.
The Bulls didn’t just add Boozer though. They also brought in big men Kurt Thomas and Omer Asik, sharpshooter Kyle Korver, and guards Keith Bogans, CJ Watson and Ronnie Brewer. In short, this is almost an entirely new roster. This team could take time to develop chemistry and for roles to be established, especially in terms of the bench rotation. I like this team a lot though. They are bigger and better on both ends of the court and ready to challenge the elite teams in the East.
Position battles: The Bulls will have to decide who their starting shooting guard will be. With Rose, Luol Deng and Boozer scoring the majority of the points, perhaps defensive specialist Keith Bogans will be the best fit. He and Ronnie Brewer, who played in Utah with Boozer, will fight for that position. Going into the pre-season I expected Brewer to win the spot, but head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive guru and seems to prefer Bogans there. There will also be some battles for minutes in the rotation as new arrivals Kurt Thomas and rookie Omer Asik will push Taj Gibson and James Johnson for minutes.
Don’t be surprised if… Tom Thibodeau wins Coach of the Year. Thibodeau in his first stint as an NBA Head Coach will try to implement in Chicago the defensive strategies that led Boston to the NBA Finals two out of the last three years. I think he will have success.
Cleveland Cavaliers
2009-10 record: 61-21
Key Additions: Ramon Sessions, Ryan Hollins
Big Losses: LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Delonte West
Prediction: 21-61; 5th place Central Division
We’ve seen teams go from worst to first in a season, but I don’t remember ever seeing a team go from first to worst over that same span of time. When you lose LeBron James though and your biggest addition is Ramon Sessions, you have the right recipe for such a disaster. For fans who were stunned that LeBron left, one look at this roster should explain exactly why he did leave. The fact that he could get this group to the 60-win plateau in consecutive seasons shows just how dominant a player he is. With LeBron this team is a contender; without him this is the first year in what may be a lengthy rebuild. The one bright spot for this team is the power forward position, where arguably the three most talented Cavs play. Anderson Varejao will move to center, and Antawn Jamison will likely move to small forward so JJ Hickson can start at power forward.
This team will likely have a fire sale mid-season that rivals what happened in Washington last year, where the team trades its biggest assets for expiring contracts and young talented players in bad situations. This year Cleveland will have to hit the restart button and build this franchise from the ground up.
Position battles: Anthony Parker started a shooting guard last season as a defensive specialist. Without LeBron though, the Cavs will need to add more offense to the court. Ramon Sessions could start at point guard, moving high scoring guard Mo Williams over to two guard replacing Parker.
Don’t be surprised if… This team looks totally different after the trade deadline. There is no rebuilding around this roster as it stands. No matter what team owner Dan Gilbert said.
Detroit Pistons
2009-10 record: 27-55
Key Additions: Greg Monroe, Tracy McGrady, Terrico White
Big Losses: None
Prediction: 27-55; 4th place Central Division
What is Joe Dumars building? Dumars, the President of Basketball Operations for the Pistons, was once voted NBA Executive of the Year. Unfortunately, those days are long behind him. Dumars has put together a roster full of redundancy all because of his belief that he can build a franchise around guard Rodney Stuckey. You can’t Joe, and you have the roster to prove why. Stuckey first and foremost is not a point guard. He’s a shooting guard that can handle the rock. This team is in dire need of a true point guard who can distribute the ball to the myriad of scorers. But Detroit can’t find that type of point guard until the team realizes that Stuckey is not that guy. The problem is that the team has two really good shooting guards in Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton, so now there is no place for Stuckey to play except for the point. The small forward position for Detroit is even worse than the guard dilemma. Tayshaun Prince and his clone Austin Daye are both deserving of minutes at small forward. Yet Dumars goes out and signs Tracy McGrady, who will take minutes away from each. Plus, the team’s starting power forward Charlie Villanueva is really a glorified small forward as well. If forward Jonas Jerebko were not out for the season, this situation would be even worse.
The silver lining in the dark cloud may be rookie Greg Monroe from Georgetown. I like Monroe a lot and think that he will be a good understudy to Ben Wallace this year as he makes his transition to the pros. I do believe though that Monroe is a power forward and not a center. That problem however will at least be on hold for another year.
Position battles: The shooting guard and small forward spots are really still undefined. Hamilton or Gordon could start at shooting guard. The small forward spot could go to McGrady or Prince, though Daye might be the best option as the starter.
Don’t be surprised if… The Pistons roster incurs some major carnage before the trade deadline. Prince has an expiring contract which may prove valuable to other teams and Rip and Ben Gordon cannot co-exist. Villanueva also may be dealt, if Detroit can find a suitor.
Indiana Pacers
2009-10 record: 32-50
Key Additions: Darren Collison, Paul George, James Posey
Big Losses: Troy Murphy, Earl Watson, Luther Head
Prediction: 30-52; 3rd place Central Division
Pacers’ President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird is a legend in his home state of Indiana. However, Hoosiers may be losing patience with their native son. Larry Bird has been unable to rebuild this team since the retirement of Reggie Miller and once again had an underwhelming offseason. I can still remember the look on Danny Granger’s face during the Draft Lottery selection show when he learned that Indiana had not moved into the top three. That look of frustration may be a mainstay on Granger’s face this season as losses continue to outnumber victories. Granger has played incredible basketball for the past two seasons but it seems to be in vain. He needs help and isn’t getting the help he needs. Roy Hibbert was an excellent addition three years ago and looks ready to have a breakout season. Aside from Hibbert though, Larry Bird has made some questionable choices. He traded away Troy Murphy this offseason leaving Tyler Hansbrough the only legitimate power forward option to start. Hansbrough is still raw and not ready in my opinion to be a starter. Murphy was moved for point guard Darren Collison, not because of need but because the Pacers refuse to play TJ Ford. Having a talent like Ford just sit on the bench is baffling, and adding Collison while losing Murphy is really a lateral move. Plus, the Pacers drafted yet another swingman in the draft while players like Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich and Patrick Patterson were still available.
The Pacers have talent, don’t get me wrong. But if you want to improve, you need to add talent that is complimentary. The Pacers’ talent is redundant in some places and barren in others. The Pacers have six swingmen who all will need time on the court and lack legitimate interior play aside from Hibbert.
Position battles: There is a glut of wing players on this roster and someone will be left out of the mix. The starters (Dunleavy and Granger) are firm but the others will fight for playing time.
Don’t be surprised if… The Pacers decide to start Danny Granger out of position at power forward. That would allow Brandon Rush and Dunleavy to play together with Granger and increase the talent level on the court.
Milwaukee Bucks
2009-10 record: 46-36
Key Additions: Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden, Larry Sanders, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman, Earl Boykins
Big Losses: Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour
Prediction: 54-28; 1st place Central Division
The Bucks were surprisingly good last season and got even better in the offseason. Rarely do you see a team improve at every position, but that’s exactly what Milwaukee did. Corey Maggette will join John Salmons on the wing this year, adding another serious offensive threat for the Bucks. Maggette toiled away in anonymity for two years in Golden State but now has a new lease on life in Milwaukee. The Bucks also picked up journeyman Drew Gooden who will start at power forward. Gooden like Maggette has been an under the radar type of player who every year seems to flirt with a double-double. Gooden will be an upgrade because of his tremendous rebounding skills. The biggest addition in Milwaukee though will be a healthy Andrew Bogut. Milwaukee was successful last year but suffered a first round playoff loss without Bogut in the lineup. With their improved roster, Bogut should be able to help this team advance in the playoffs.
While Bogut’s return will be key, make no mistake, this is Brandon Jennings’ team. Jennings will have a tougher job this season as he will have to make sure that everyone gets their touches. I expect his ppg to remain the same as last year and his assists per game to improve. The only problem that I see with the Bucks is that they have too much talent. This team goes legitimately 12-deep and some players are going to have to check their egos for the greater good of the team. If they can, the Milwaukee is a serious title contender.
Position battles: This team is so deep that every reserve spot should be contested. At point guard Dooling and Boykins are in a fight. At shooting guard, Douglas-Roberts, Carlos Delfino and Michael Redd (when healthy) will scrap it out for the backup 2-spot. Mbah a Moute will have to slide over and backup the small forward to make minutes for Ersan Ilyasova at power forward, while rookie Larry Sanders will battle Jon Brockman for time at center.
Don’t be surprised if… Someone’s feelings get hurt. So many of the players locked in position battles are new faces who were brought to town to help this team win, and thought that they would have a significant role in Milwaukee. Yet there just aren’t enough minutes to go around.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
2009-10 record: 53-29
Key Additions: Jordan Crawford, Josh Powell
Big Losses: Joe Smith
Prediction: 50-32; 3rd place Southeast Division
The Hawks decided to bring Joe Johnson back as a max player instead of opting to rebuild the team. The problem facing the Hawks was that they are not a championship contender and signing Johnson to a max deal would preclude them from signing any other players to become a contender. So barring a trade, the Hawks are pretty much stuck being a very good team. Atlanta has a solid core with Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jamal Crawford. In addition, the team drafted high flying guard Jordan Crawford this summer. He along with 2009 draft pick Jeff Teague add to the team’s backcourt depth.
The problem with the Hawks though is their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Al Horford, the team’s starting center, is probably better suited to play power forward but the Hawks don’t have a better option at center. Former 2nd overall draft pick Marvin Williams has started for the past four seasons at forward, but his development has been retarded. His points per game have actually decreased two years in a row and he is likely a better fit for a reserve role than the role of starter. Again though, the Hawks have no better option to start ahead of Williams. The Hawks lack of size will ultimately be their undoing until they can find a way to bring in more quality big men. Still, this is a playoff team and a tough opponent during the regular season.
Position battles… While Mike Bibby will start at point guard, there has to be growing concern that his talents are declining. Last season he averaged career lows in points, assists and steals. Jamal Crawford could be a better option at the point. Though Crawford is not a traditional point guard, he has shown in the past that he can run a team. With Bibby’s best days behind him, Crawford might get a chance to prove he can run a team again.
Don’t be surprised if… The Hawks deal Mike Bibby this season. If a contending team loses its point guard to injury, Bibby could be valuable. If the Hawks do move him, they would likely do so for a big man.
Charlotte Bobcats
2009-10 record: 44-38
Key Additions: Shaun Livingston, Kwame Brown, Sherron Collins
Big Losses: Tyson Chandler, Erick Dampier, Larry Hughes, Flip Murray
Prediction: 36-46; 5th place Southeast Division
After a year in which the Bobcats had their most successful season in their brief history, they really took a step backwards. This summer seemed a comedy of errors for Charlotte. I’m not sure who is making the personnel decisions here, but he’s doing a lousy job. First, the Bobcats traded for guard Jose Calderon, only to rescind the trade the following day. Then the club traded Tyson Chandler for center Erick Dampier, forward Eduardo Najera and guard Matt Carroll. The deal appeared to be solid at first though Najera and Carroll probably won’t be rotation players and have multiple years left on their contracts. Then Charlotte again attempted to trade Dampier (whom they just acquired) for Jose Calderon (who they nixed a trade for earlier in the summer). When that deal did not go through, Charlotte cut Dampier for salary cap reasons. Only the team really needed his services, and is now thin as a rail at center. Journeyman Nazr Mohammed will be the starting center with the underperforming duo of Kwame Brown and DeSagana Diop backing him up. That’s awful. So in essence the Bobcats traded Tyson Chandler for Matt Carroll and Eduardo Najera. That’s even worse.
The Bobcats also let Raymond Felton walk away without attempting to sign him, and now the team is stuck with DJ Augustin as the starting point guard. It is clear that the organization lacks faith in Augustin, which is why they attempted to acquire Jose Calderon twice. I just don’t understand how you follow up your best season with a summer like this. The Bobcats struggles this season will be a direct reflection on their dysfunctional front office.
Position battles: Last season, Charlotte traded away its first round draft pick for forward Tyrus Thomas, so you think that he should be the starter at power forward. However Boris Diaw is still hanging on to the position. In my opinion, you don’t trade a first round pick for a reserve player so I believe Thomas will be the starter at some point this season.
Don’t be surprised if… This is Larry Brown’s last season in Charlotte. He has a history of short stints and if this team does not qualify for the playoffs, I think he walks away.
Miami Heat
2009-10 record: 47-35
Key Additions: LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Miller, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Dexter Pittman
Big Losses: Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Dorrel Wright, Quentin Richardson
Prediction: 65-17; 1st place Southeast Division
Initially when LeBron James and Chris Bosh signed with Miami, I figured that this club would likely be a year away from winning a championship. But the more I thought about it, the more I was convinced that this team can and likely will win it all this year. When you have three extraordinary players like Wade, James, and Bosh, there will not be many obstacles that are insurmountable for the Heat.
The biggest challenge for this team will be establishing chemistry. Bosh, Wade and James were all the go to guy on their respective teams and will have to learn when to take over a game and when to facilitate for others. Typically when a superstar takes over a game, the other players just watch in awe. But with these three, they will need to continue making plays for the man with the hot hand until he cools off. The unglamorous aspects of the game that might be foreign to them like setting screens, crashing the boards and passing out of double teams will all be asked of each. It may be a while before the three learn to play with one another, but when they do I could envision this team capable of reeling off 15-20 games without a loss.
The biggest challenge for coach Eric Spoelstra will be establishing a rotation. He will have to figure out which players to play together and how much rest to give three guys who are used to playing big minutes. His task is even more difficult because the Heat has so many new players. Once chemistry and rotation issues are resolved, I just can’t see any team in the East (or the West) beating them in a 7-game series.
Position battles: The position battles for the Heat are at the positions not played by Wade, James and Bosh. That means point guard and center. The point guard battle is between Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers, but Mike Miller might be an X factor. Miller would not play the point, but Spoelstra could move Wade or even James to the point to get another shooter in the game. The center battle is between Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Joel Anthony. All 3 have their positives as well as their drawbacks. In the end though, it really won’t matter who starts. Think back to the Bulls three-headed monster at the center position. I think the same will hold for these three.
Don’t be surprised if… Eric Spoelstra doesn’t make it through the season as coach of the Heat. I think he will, but wouldn’t be shocked if Pat Riley bumped him out of the way a la Stan Van Gundy, and took the reigns.
Orlando Magic
2009-10 record: 59-23
Key Additions: Quentin Richardson, Daniel Orton, Chris Duhon
Big Losses: Matt Barnes
Prediction: 61-21; 2nd place Southeast Division
So much attention last season was paid to how the Celtics upset the Cavs, we almost forget that Orlando was favored in their series against Boston too. Yet the Magic, like the Cavs was eliminated in 6 games. This is a team that is one season removed from the NBA Finals, yet I don’t consider them a true contender for a title. That’s because last year I saw that the Magic just don’t have a player able to dominate a game in the second season. Last year, Jameer Nelson led the team in scoring in the playoffs and Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter were average. Dwight Howard carried his season averages through the playoffs, but that’s a part of the problem. I think Howard has maxed out on his talent and unless he develops some unstoppable moves around the basket, his 18 ppg cannot carry this team to a championship.
I also saw last year that Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis don’t appear to like playing with one another. Carter was brought in to replace Hedo Turkoglu, who was the perfect role player for Orlando. Turkoglu could take over games when needed, but more often than not he facilitated for other players. When the Magic made their run to the Finals in 2009, Turkoglu led the team in assists. He also made Rashard Lewis better. Carter does neither. He and Lewis do so much of the same things that they are redundant on the court together. Lewis averaged 3 ppg fewer last season than he did in 2008-09, and his playoff average was down 7 ppg from the year before. Carter’s arrival made Lewis irrelevant. I don’t see how things will change this season.
I like the signings of Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon, and believe that Barnes’ exit will leave more playing time for Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass which should be an improvement. But the Magic needs more playmakers. Orlando ranked 25th last season in team assists. The Magic will be an excellent regular season team, but barring a blockbuster trade during the season, I can’t see this team as constituted winning a championship.
Position battles: Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson will battle for the spot left vacant with the departure of Matt Barnes. Unlike Barnes, both Anderson and Bass are true power forwards. When the Magic acquired Vince Carter in the summer of 2009, Ryan Anderson came over in the deal as well. I considered Anderson the real steal of that trade and expect him to flourish at power forward. That is, assuming he can beat out Brandon Bass. I think Anderson is the better of the two and expect him to earn the starting spot.
Don’t be surprised if… Somehow, poor old Stan Van Gundy becomes the scapegoat again and is let go after another unspectacular playoff finish. Remember what happened to Mike Brown and Mike Woodson last year.
Washington Wizards
2009-10 record: 26-56
Key Additions: John Wall, Kirk Hinrich, Yi Jianlian, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Hilton Armstrong
Big Losses: Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Earl Boykins, Shaun Livingston, James Singleton
Prediction: 36-46; 5th place Southeast Division
Washington is the biggest question mark entering the 2010-11 season. This team is full of enigmatic players and I can see the team winning anywhere between 28-44 games this year. Rookie John Wall is not in question, as he translated a successful summer league into a strong pre-season. Wall should have a solid rookie campaign, similar to the season Brandon Jennings had last year in Milwaukee. Aside from Wall though, we really don’t know what to expect from the Wizards this season.
Gilbert Arenas transitioning to shooting guard will take some time. It will be interesting to see how he plays off of the ball and also how he handles not being the franchise player in DC. Last year after Arenas was suspended and Butler, Haywood, and Jamison dealt, Andray Blatche emerged as a budding star. He averaged 21 points, 8 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists as a starter last season. I believe he is the third best power forward in the East, behind Bosh and Boozer (remember, Amar’e is playing center this year). Yet with Arenas and Wall scoring in droves, will there be enough shots for Blatche? Wizards center JaVale McGee also looked to turn the corner last year. The question with him is whether he can use his physical gifts to become an above average rebounder. Josh Howard only played 3 games for the Wizards last year before tearing his ACL. His knee and how he rebounds from injury are the questions surrounding him. Then there is Nick Young, who at times looks like he is good enough to be a starter in this league and at other times seems to disappear on the court. The question with him is whether he can be consistent.
The biggest question mark with the team as a whole is whether they have improved defensively. The Wiz has been a porous defensive team for years, and until that changes talk of the playoffs seems premature. Still, this team has some pieces.
Position battles: None.
Don’t be surprised if… Gilbert Arenas requests a trade this season. He is on his good behavior now because he is trying to rehab his image, but I don’t know if his ego can handle being the guy next to the guy. As the adulation for John Wall increases, Arenas may wish to take his talents elsewhere.
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Eastern Conference Preview
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
2009-10 record: 50-32
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Delonte West, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody
Big Losses: Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen
Prediction: 50-32; 1st place Atlantic Division
Last season, no one expected the Celtics to do much in the playoffs. Boston was able to shock the basketball world and upset both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, only to fall one game short of handing that same fate to the Los Angeles Lakers. This season many analysts are picking Boston as the favorite in the East. I though am not as optimistic about these Celtics.
Boston wasn’t expected to advance very far in the playoffs based on a lackluster regular season. Don’t get me wrong, 50 wins is impressive, but in the East it’s akin to about a .500 mark in the West. Miami won 47 games last year with a much less talented team than Boston. The Celtics underperformed during the regular season, in part, because they are getting old. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and KG have played a lot of basketball. Pierce is the youngest of the three and at 33 he is entering his 13th NBA season. Like Allen and Garnett, Pierce’s numbers slipped a bit last year and I would expect more of the same this season. I love Rajon Rondo’s game and believe that he will be the key to the Celtics success this year. With the artists formerly known as the Big 3 advancing in age, he will have to contribute even more to keep this team rolling.
I like the addition of Delonte West, who started his career in Boston. When Delonte is right, he is a heck of a basketball player. What I didn’t like though was that Boston let Tony Allen go. Allen was a role player with the Celtics, but always stepped up big when the Celtics needed it most. He and Rasheed Wallace will be sorely missed.
With all of the age issues in Boston, you would think that the Celtics would’ve brought in a wave of young players (similar to what San Antonio did) this summer. The Celtics though chose to compound their age problems by adding two big men whose careers have already arched. Jermaine O’Neal looked awful in the playoffs last season. After averaging better than 13 ppg for Miami last year, he put in a meager 4 points per contest in the playoffs and shot a horrific 20% from the field. It looked as though he just didn’t have anything left in the tank. Shaq looked better than his namesake last season, but you have to wonder why a Hall of Fame player with Shaq’s credentials remained a free agent so long this offseason. Things got so strange that Shaq was actually recruiting himself to be signed by teams in contention (first Atlanta and then San Antonio). Shaq was not without suitors because he is not still talented, but because at this point in his career he has become a distraction. He went to Cleveland to “help the King win a ring”, but Cleveland won 5 fewer games with Shaq than without him. I predict more of the same this year in Boston.
Position battles: Kendrick Perkins will be out until February and while he is gone, Shaq will fill in at center and Jermaine O’Neal will back up Shaq. When Perkins returns from injury there may be a battle for the backup power forward spot. With Shaq coming off the bench at center, Jermaine O’Neal will be in a battle for minutes with Glen Davis as KG’s backup. I expect Davis to win the battle.
Don’t be surprised if… The Celtics don’t advance to the second round of the playoffs this season.
New Jersey Nets
2009-10 record: 12-70
Key Additions: Derrick Favors, Trevor Ariza, Troy Murphy, Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar, Anthony Morrow
Big Losses: Courtney Lee, Yi Jianlian, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes
Prediction: 28-54; 4th place Atlantic Division
After last season, things can only get better in New Jersey. At least the Nets hope so. After striking out with every big name free agent this summer, New Jersey went out and acquired Troy Murphy and Jordan Farmar. The Nets also drafted rookie Derrick Favors with the 3rd overall pick. Those moves should assure that the Nets won’t nearly be as bad this season as they were last year. Outlaw and Farmar will be key contributors as role players, and second year swingman Terrence Williams may be ready for a breakout season. Trust me, this kid can be special.
Center Brook Lopez had a great year individually last year. I expect his numbers to go down a little since he will have Troy Murphy and Derrick Favors playing alongside. Still, Lopez looks like he is the building block for this franchise. Point guard Devin Harris is another story. In just his 7th upcoming season, he looks like he may have peaked already. His scoring, assists and steals were all down last year following his stellar debut season in New Jersey. This year he has to prove to his coach Avery Johnson and the Nets organization that he is the point guard of this team for the foreseeable future. If not, Farmar may end up splitting time at the point.
Position battles: Travis Outlaw was brought in to start but Terrence Williams may move Outlaw to the bench. The team drafted Williams in the 2009 Draft with the 11th pick, and they didn’t spend a pick that high to let him sit. His talent will propel him into the starting lineup by midseason.
Don’t be surprised if… The relationship between Avery Johnson and Devin Harris is rocky. Johnson coached Harris in Dallas and ultimately parted ways with him. Harris will have to show that he has matured since then or he will be on a short leash.
New York Knicks
2009-10 record: 29-53
Key Additions: Amar’e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Ray Felton, Roger Mason, Kelenna Azubuike, Timofey Mozgov, Ronny Turiaf, Landry Fields
Big Losses: David Lee, Al Harrington, Tracy McGrady, Chris Duhon
Prediction: 40-42; 2nd place Atlantic Division
The Knicks finally got their man. Okay, their man was LeBron but hey they finally got a superstar still in his prime to come to New York. Stoudemire was a monster last year in Phoenix and should be even more effective this year playing in the Eastern Conference. He is a throwback player who may become the new Clyde Frazier for the Knicks. He is joined by Anthony Randolph and Ray Felton who also arrived in New York this summer. Randolph is a wiry athletic forward who could flourish playing next to Stoudemire. Felton is not the point guard the Knicks coveted, but should remind New Yorkers of former point guard Mark Jackson (both a little doughy, and both effective distributors). Felton will not be a high scoring point guard, but he can help the Knicks develop a tempo and an identity that has been missing in the Big Apple. Along with Randolph and Stoudemire, he will have Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari to dish the rock to. Felton’s task will be getting this new group to gel as a unit.
If the Knicks starting group is a work in progress, the bench is even more enigmatic. Mozgov is a relative unknown center from Russia who the Knicks signed this summer. He will be the backup center while Eddy Curry continues to wilt on the bench. He will be joined by Roger Mason, Toney Douglas, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Landry Fields and Bill Walker. This unit seems strange because it is not clear who will garner the playing time. Plus, with so many new faces the bench is as unfamiliar as the starters.
Position battles: The bench. Mason and Douglass will fight for minutes behind Felton, and Walker and Fields will battle for the reserve small forward spot. And will the Knicks finally play Eddy Curry? Neither he nor Mozgov has played a minute this pre-season.
Don’t be surprised if… The Knicks decide to use Randolph and Chandler or Gallinari as the main pieces to bring over Carmelo this season. The Knicks upgraded this offseason without question, but I still think they want to make a major splash to contend with the elite teams of this league.
Philadelphia 76ers
2009-10 record: 27-55
Key Additions: Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni, Craig Brackins, Tony Battie
Big Losses: Sam Dalembert, Willie Green, Jason Smith
Prediction: 37-45; 3rd place Atlantic Division
The Sixers had a very productive offseason. First, they drafted Evan Turner out of Ohio State. Turner will start with Andre Iguodala and bring more athleticism to Philly’s lineup. The Sixers also acquired center Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni from Sacramento. Hawes is more offensive minded than Sam Dalembert who he replaces and comes at a smaller price tag. Nocioni is a physical player who will add toughness to the Sixers’ bench. Then the Sixers traded Willie Green and Jason Smith for rookie Craig Brackins. While Brackins won’t make much of an impact this year, clearing Smith and Green from the roster will help. Players like Jason Kapono and Thaddeus Young will be able to get more minutes off of the bench.
While I don’t believe Philly will be good enough to make the playoffs, the team appears to be headed in the right direction. Sometimes unsuccessful teams need to bring in a fresh crop of players to shake things up. That is what the Sixers were able to accomplish.
Position battles: Marreese Speights is coming for Elton Brand’s spot. It’s only a matter of time. Brand signed a huge free agent contract with Philly before woefully underperforming. The Sixers have been hoping for Brand to return to his days as a 20 and 10 contributor, but those days are done. Speights is athletic and hungry and should supplant Brand as the starter at some point during the season.
Don’t be surprised if… The Sixers try to buy Elton Brand out of his deal at some point this season. I think Speights will beat him out and it’s hard to justify bringing a max guy off of the bench. With Brackins in tow, it would make parting with Brand less difficult.
Toronto Raptors
2009-10 record: 40-42
Key Additions: Linas Kleiza, Ed Davis, David Andersen, Leo Barbosa, Solomon Alabi, Julian Wright
Big Losses: Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, Marco Belinelli, Antoine Wright
Prediction: 25-57; 5th place Atlantic Division
The Raptors are clearly in rebuilding mode after losing Chris Bosh. The problem is that they are rebuilding around Andrea Bargnani who is a player without a position. Bargnani is a tweener who does not rebound especially well. He does block shots, but is still not a true power forward. So in building around him Toronto was forced to bring on other frontcourt players who can play more than one position. Linas Kleiza can play either forward spot and Ed Davis can play forward and center. The problem is that neither Kleiza nor Davis has a true position. So you won’t get true back the basket play from Davis or quick slashes to the basket by Kleiza. What you will get is a lot of role confusion. Kleiza is making his return to the NBA this season from Europe and I really like his talent. He led Lithuania this summer at the FIBA championships and showed that he can perform on a big stage. Davis was injured during the offseason, so he may miss the first month of the season. He is a project at this point, and will likely spend the year as a reserve. David Andersen who spent his rookie season in Houston will be the starter at center.
The Raptors’ backcourt is just as confusing as the frontcourt. The team traded point guard Jose Calderon to Charlotte this summer, only to hear that the Bobcats rescinded the trade. DeMar DeRozan, who starts at shooting guard, has yet to hit his NBA stride. Last year he shot a paltry 25% from deep, and averaged just 8 ppg as a starter. He has to show this season that he can be a starter at shooting guard in this league and do more than dunk in spectacular fashion.
There are a few bright spots on the Raptors’ bench. Swingman Sonny Weems has had a solid pre-season and Leo Barbosa and Jarrett Jack have outplayed the guys ahead of them on the depth chart. This will not be a pretty season for the Raptors, but rebuilding seasons are usually not easy to watch.
Position battles: The backcourt pieces in Toronto are not quite set. Jack outplayed Calderon last year and this year may supplant him as the starter. If DeRozan doesn’t show marked improvement, Barbosa or Weems could steal his starting spot.
Don’t be surprised if… The Raptors make a run at Rudy Fernandez. Bryan Colangelo the Raptors GM likes Fernandez and he may try to pry him away from the Blazers. The Blazers need size and rebounding machine Reggie Evans may be the bargaining chip.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
2009-10 record: 41-41
Key Additions: Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Omer Asik, Keith Bogans, Kurt Thomas, CJ Watson
Big Losses: Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, Hakim Warrick, Jannero Pargo
Prediction: 52-30; 2nd place Central Division
The Bulls are back. Chicago pulled off one of the biggest free agent signings this summer, agreeing to terms with All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer. Boozer’s arrival makes this team a legitimate contender. Last year Chicago struggled and finished with a .500 record for the second straight season, before losing in the first round of the playoffs. Yet it was not a lost season. Joakim Noah had the best season of his career, averaging a double-double. Derrick Rose also showed improvements from his Rookie of the Year campaign, increasing his scoring average by 4 ppg. Yet Chicago was average, lacking a true difference maker in the post. Carlos Boozer is that guy. The Bulls haven’t had a 20 and 10 guy since they quizzically traded Elton Brand away 10 years ago. Boozer has a chance to do that this season and beef up a frontline that was undersized last season. His presence should assist the continued development of Rose and Noah who will both benefit from his ability to draw defenders, creating openings on the court.
The Bulls didn’t just add Boozer though. They also brought in big men Kurt Thomas and Omer Asik, sharpshooter Kyle Korver, and guards Keith Bogans, CJ Watson and Ronnie Brewer. In short, this is almost an entirely new roster. This team could take time to develop chemistry and for roles to be established, especially in terms of the bench rotation. I like this team a lot though. They are bigger and better on both ends of the court and ready to challenge the elite teams in the East.
Position battles: The Bulls will have to decide who their starting shooting guard will be. With Rose, Luol Deng and Boozer scoring the majority of the points, perhaps defensive specialist Keith Bogans will be the best fit. He and Ronnie Brewer, who played in Utah with Boozer, will fight for that position. Going into the pre-season I expected Brewer to win the spot, but head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive guru and seems to prefer Bogans there. There will also be some battles for minutes in the rotation as new arrivals Kurt Thomas and rookie Omer Asik will push Taj Gibson and James Johnson for minutes.
Don’t be surprised if… Tom Thibodeau wins Coach of the Year. Thibodeau in his first stint as an NBA Head Coach will try to implement in Chicago the defensive strategies that led Boston to the NBA Finals two out of the last three years. I think he will have success.
Cleveland Cavaliers
2009-10 record: 61-21
Key Additions: Ramon Sessions, Ryan Hollins
Big Losses: LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Delonte West
Prediction: 21-61; 5th place Central Division
We’ve seen teams go from worst to first in a season, but I don’t remember ever seeing a team go from first to worst over that same span of time. When you lose LeBron James though and your biggest addition is Ramon Sessions, you have the right recipe for such a disaster. For fans who were stunned that LeBron left, one look at this roster should explain exactly why he did leave. The fact that he could get this group to the 60-win plateau in consecutive seasons shows just how dominant a player he is. With LeBron this team is a contender; without him this is the first year in what may be a lengthy rebuild. The one bright spot for this team is the power forward position, where arguably the three most talented Cavs play. Anderson Varejao will move to center, and Antawn Jamison will likely move to small forward so JJ Hickson can start at power forward.
This team will likely have a fire sale mid-season that rivals what happened in Washington last year, where the team trades its biggest assets for expiring contracts and young talented players in bad situations. This year Cleveland will have to hit the restart button and build this franchise from the ground up.
Position battles: Anthony Parker started a shooting guard last season as a defensive specialist. Without LeBron though, the Cavs will need to add more offense to the court. Ramon Sessions could start at point guard, moving high scoring guard Mo Williams over to two guard replacing Parker.
Don’t be surprised if… This team looks totally different after the trade deadline. There is no rebuilding around this roster as it stands. No matter what team owner Dan Gilbert said.
Detroit Pistons
2009-10 record: 27-55
Key Additions: Greg Monroe, Tracy McGrady, Terrico White
Big Losses: None
Prediction: 27-55; 4th place Central Division
What is Joe Dumars building? Dumars, the President of Basketball Operations for the Pistons, was once voted NBA Executive of the Year. Unfortunately, those days are long behind him. Dumars has put together a roster full of redundancy all because of his belief that he can build a franchise around guard Rodney Stuckey. You can’t Joe, and you have the roster to prove why. Stuckey first and foremost is not a point guard. He’s a shooting guard that can handle the rock. This team is in dire need of a true point guard who can distribute the ball to the myriad of scorers. But Detroit can’t find that type of point guard until the team realizes that Stuckey is not that guy. The problem is that the team has two really good shooting guards in Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton, so now there is no place for Stuckey to play except for the point. The small forward position for Detroit is even worse than the guard dilemma. Tayshaun Prince and his clone Austin Daye are both deserving of minutes at small forward. Yet Dumars goes out and signs Tracy McGrady, who will take minutes away from each. Plus, the team’s starting power forward Charlie Villanueva is really a glorified small forward as well. If forward Jonas Jerebko were not out for the season, this situation would be even worse.
The silver lining in the dark cloud may be rookie Greg Monroe from Georgetown. I like Monroe a lot and think that he will be a good understudy to Ben Wallace this year as he makes his transition to the pros. I do believe though that Monroe is a power forward and not a center. That problem however will at least be on hold for another year.
Position battles: The shooting guard and small forward spots are really still undefined. Hamilton or Gordon could start at shooting guard. The small forward spot could go to McGrady or Prince, though Daye might be the best option as the starter.
Don’t be surprised if… The Pistons roster incurs some major carnage before the trade deadline. Prince has an expiring contract which may prove valuable to other teams and Rip and Ben Gordon cannot co-exist. Villanueva also may be dealt, if Detroit can find a suitor.
Indiana Pacers
2009-10 record: 32-50
Key Additions: Darren Collison, Paul George, James Posey
Big Losses: Troy Murphy, Earl Watson, Luther Head
Prediction: 30-52; 3rd place Central Division
Pacers’ President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird is a legend in his home state of Indiana. However, Hoosiers may be losing patience with their native son. Larry Bird has been unable to rebuild this team since the retirement of Reggie Miller and once again had an underwhelming offseason. I can still remember the look on Danny Granger’s face during the Draft Lottery selection show when he learned that Indiana had not moved into the top three. That look of frustration may be a mainstay on Granger’s face this season as losses continue to outnumber victories. Granger has played incredible basketball for the past two seasons but it seems to be in vain. He needs help and isn’t getting the help he needs. Roy Hibbert was an excellent addition three years ago and looks ready to have a breakout season. Aside from Hibbert though, Larry Bird has made some questionable choices. He traded away Troy Murphy this offseason leaving Tyler Hansbrough the only legitimate power forward option to start. Hansbrough is still raw and not ready in my opinion to be a starter. Murphy was moved for point guard Darren Collison, not because of need but because the Pacers refuse to play TJ Ford. Having a talent like Ford just sit on the bench is baffling, and adding Collison while losing Murphy is really a lateral move. Plus, the Pacers drafted yet another swingman in the draft while players like Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich and Patrick Patterson were still available.
The Pacers have talent, don’t get me wrong. But if you want to improve, you need to add talent that is complimentary. The Pacers’ talent is redundant in some places and barren in others. The Pacers have six swingmen who all will need time on the court and lack legitimate interior play aside from Hibbert.
Position battles: There is a glut of wing players on this roster and someone will be left out of the mix. The starters (Dunleavy and Granger) are firm but the others will fight for playing time.
Don’t be surprised if… The Pacers decide to start Danny Granger out of position at power forward. That would allow Brandon Rush and Dunleavy to play together with Granger and increase the talent level on the court.
Milwaukee Bucks
2009-10 record: 46-36
Key Additions: Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden, Larry Sanders, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman, Earl Boykins
Big Losses: Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour
Prediction: 54-28; 1st place Central Division
The Bucks were surprisingly good last season and got even better in the offseason. Rarely do you see a team improve at every position, but that’s exactly what Milwaukee did. Corey Maggette will join John Salmons on the wing this year, adding another serious offensive threat for the Bucks. Maggette toiled away in anonymity for two years in Golden State but now has a new lease on life in Milwaukee. The Bucks also picked up journeyman Drew Gooden who will start at power forward. Gooden like Maggette has been an under the radar type of player who every year seems to flirt with a double-double. Gooden will be an upgrade because of his tremendous rebounding skills. The biggest addition in Milwaukee though will be a healthy Andrew Bogut. Milwaukee was successful last year but suffered a first round playoff loss without Bogut in the lineup. With their improved roster, Bogut should be able to help this team advance in the playoffs.
While Bogut’s return will be key, make no mistake, this is Brandon Jennings’ team. Jennings will have a tougher job this season as he will have to make sure that everyone gets their touches. I expect his ppg to remain the same as last year and his assists per game to improve. The only problem that I see with the Bucks is that they have too much talent. This team goes legitimately 12-deep and some players are going to have to check their egos for the greater good of the team. If they can, the Milwaukee is a serious title contender.
Position battles: This team is so deep that every reserve spot should be contested. At point guard Dooling and Boykins are in a fight. At shooting guard, Douglas-Roberts, Carlos Delfino and Michael Redd (when healthy) will scrap it out for the backup 2-spot. Mbah a Moute will have to slide over and backup the small forward to make minutes for Ersan Ilyasova at power forward, while rookie Larry Sanders will battle Jon Brockman for time at center.
Don’t be surprised if… Someone’s feelings get hurt. So many of the players locked in position battles are new faces who were brought to town to help this team win, and thought that they would have a significant role in Milwaukee. Yet there just aren’t enough minutes to go around.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
2009-10 record: 53-29
Key Additions: Jordan Crawford, Josh Powell
Big Losses: Joe Smith
Prediction: 50-32; 3rd place Southeast Division
The Hawks decided to bring Joe Johnson back as a max player instead of opting to rebuild the team. The problem facing the Hawks was that they are not a championship contender and signing Johnson to a max deal would preclude them from signing any other players to become a contender. So barring a trade, the Hawks are pretty much stuck being a very good team. Atlanta has a solid core with Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jamal Crawford. In addition, the team drafted high flying guard Jordan Crawford this summer. He along with 2009 draft pick Jeff Teague add to the team’s backcourt depth.
The problem with the Hawks though is their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Al Horford, the team’s starting center, is probably better suited to play power forward but the Hawks don’t have a better option at center. Former 2nd overall draft pick Marvin Williams has started for the past four seasons at forward, but his development has been retarded. His points per game have actually decreased two years in a row and he is likely a better fit for a reserve role than the role of starter. Again though, the Hawks have no better option to start ahead of Williams. The Hawks lack of size will ultimately be their undoing until they can find a way to bring in more quality big men. Still, this is a playoff team and a tough opponent during the regular season.
Position battles… While Mike Bibby will start at point guard, there has to be growing concern that his talents are declining. Last season he averaged career lows in points, assists and steals. Jamal Crawford could be a better option at the point. Though Crawford is not a traditional point guard, he has shown in the past that he can run a team. With Bibby’s best days behind him, Crawford might get a chance to prove he can run a team again.
Don’t be surprised if… The Hawks deal Mike Bibby this season. If a contending team loses its point guard to injury, Bibby could be valuable. If the Hawks do move him, they would likely do so for a big man.
Charlotte Bobcats
2009-10 record: 44-38
Key Additions: Shaun Livingston, Kwame Brown, Sherron Collins
Big Losses: Tyson Chandler, Erick Dampier, Larry Hughes, Flip Murray
Prediction: 36-46; 5th place Southeast Division
After a year in which the Bobcats had their most successful season in their brief history, they really took a step backwards. This summer seemed a comedy of errors for Charlotte. I’m not sure who is making the personnel decisions here, but he’s doing a lousy job. First, the Bobcats traded for guard Jose Calderon, only to rescind the trade the following day. Then the club traded Tyson Chandler for center Erick Dampier, forward Eduardo Najera and guard Matt Carroll. The deal appeared to be solid at first though Najera and Carroll probably won’t be rotation players and have multiple years left on their contracts. Then Charlotte again attempted to trade Dampier (whom they just acquired) for Jose Calderon (who they nixed a trade for earlier in the summer). When that deal did not go through, Charlotte cut Dampier for salary cap reasons. Only the team really needed his services, and is now thin as a rail at center. Journeyman Nazr Mohammed will be the starting center with the underperforming duo of Kwame Brown and DeSagana Diop backing him up. That’s awful. So in essence the Bobcats traded Tyson Chandler for Matt Carroll and Eduardo Najera. That’s even worse.
The Bobcats also let Raymond Felton walk away without attempting to sign him, and now the team is stuck with DJ Augustin as the starting point guard. It is clear that the organization lacks faith in Augustin, which is why they attempted to acquire Jose Calderon twice. I just don’t understand how you follow up your best season with a summer like this. The Bobcats struggles this season will be a direct reflection on their dysfunctional front office.
Position battles: Last season, Charlotte traded away its first round draft pick for forward Tyrus Thomas, so you think that he should be the starter at power forward. However Boris Diaw is still hanging on to the position. In my opinion, you don’t trade a first round pick for a reserve player so I believe Thomas will be the starter at some point this season.
Don’t be surprised if… This is Larry Brown’s last season in Charlotte. He has a history of short stints and if this team does not qualify for the playoffs, I think he walks away.
Miami Heat
2009-10 record: 47-35
Key Additions: LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Miller, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Dexter Pittman
Big Losses: Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Dorrel Wright, Quentin Richardson
Prediction: 65-17; 1st place Southeast Division
Initially when LeBron James and Chris Bosh signed with Miami, I figured that this club would likely be a year away from winning a championship. But the more I thought about it, the more I was convinced that this team can and likely will win it all this year. When you have three extraordinary players like Wade, James, and Bosh, there will not be many obstacles that are insurmountable for the Heat.
The biggest challenge for this team will be establishing chemistry. Bosh, Wade and James were all the go to guy on their respective teams and will have to learn when to take over a game and when to facilitate for others. Typically when a superstar takes over a game, the other players just watch in awe. But with these three, they will need to continue making plays for the man with the hot hand until he cools off. The unglamorous aspects of the game that might be foreign to them like setting screens, crashing the boards and passing out of double teams will all be asked of each. It may be a while before the three learn to play with one another, but when they do I could envision this team capable of reeling off 15-20 games without a loss.
The biggest challenge for coach Eric Spoelstra will be establishing a rotation. He will have to figure out which players to play together and how much rest to give three guys who are used to playing big minutes. His task is even more difficult because the Heat has so many new players. Once chemistry and rotation issues are resolved, I just can’t see any team in the East (or the West) beating them in a 7-game series.
Position battles: The position battles for the Heat are at the positions not played by Wade, James and Bosh. That means point guard and center. The point guard battle is between Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers, but Mike Miller might be an X factor. Miller would not play the point, but Spoelstra could move Wade or even James to the point to get another shooter in the game. The center battle is between Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Joel Anthony. All 3 have their positives as well as their drawbacks. In the end though, it really won’t matter who starts. Think back to the Bulls three-headed monster at the center position. I think the same will hold for these three.
Don’t be surprised if… Eric Spoelstra doesn’t make it through the season as coach of the Heat. I think he will, but wouldn’t be shocked if Pat Riley bumped him out of the way a la Stan Van Gundy, and took the reigns.
Orlando Magic
2009-10 record: 59-23
Key Additions: Quentin Richardson, Daniel Orton, Chris Duhon
Big Losses: Matt Barnes
Prediction: 61-21; 2nd place Southeast Division
So much attention last season was paid to how the Celtics upset the Cavs, we almost forget that Orlando was favored in their series against Boston too. Yet the Magic, like the Cavs was eliminated in 6 games. This is a team that is one season removed from the NBA Finals, yet I don’t consider them a true contender for a title. That’s because last year I saw that the Magic just don’t have a player able to dominate a game in the second season. Last year, Jameer Nelson led the team in scoring in the playoffs and Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter were average. Dwight Howard carried his season averages through the playoffs, but that’s a part of the problem. I think Howard has maxed out on his talent and unless he develops some unstoppable moves around the basket, his 18 ppg cannot carry this team to a championship.
I also saw last year that Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis don’t appear to like playing with one another. Carter was brought in to replace Hedo Turkoglu, who was the perfect role player for Orlando. Turkoglu could take over games when needed, but more often than not he facilitated for other players. When the Magic made their run to the Finals in 2009, Turkoglu led the team in assists. He also made Rashard Lewis better. Carter does neither. He and Lewis do so much of the same things that they are redundant on the court together. Lewis averaged 3 ppg fewer last season than he did in 2008-09, and his playoff average was down 7 ppg from the year before. Carter’s arrival made Lewis irrelevant. I don’t see how things will change this season.
I like the signings of Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon, and believe that Barnes’ exit will leave more playing time for Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass which should be an improvement. But the Magic needs more playmakers. Orlando ranked 25th last season in team assists. The Magic will be an excellent regular season team, but barring a blockbuster trade during the season, I can’t see this team as constituted winning a championship.
Position battles: Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson will battle for the spot left vacant with the departure of Matt Barnes. Unlike Barnes, both Anderson and Bass are true power forwards. When the Magic acquired Vince Carter in the summer of 2009, Ryan Anderson came over in the deal as well. I considered Anderson the real steal of that trade and expect him to flourish at power forward. That is, assuming he can beat out Brandon Bass. I think Anderson is the better of the two and expect him to earn the starting spot.
Don’t be surprised if… Somehow, poor old Stan Van Gundy becomes the scapegoat again and is let go after another unspectacular playoff finish. Remember what happened to Mike Brown and Mike Woodson last year.
Washington Wizards
2009-10 record: 26-56
Key Additions: John Wall, Kirk Hinrich, Yi Jianlian, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Hilton Armstrong
Big Losses: Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Earl Boykins, Shaun Livingston, James Singleton
Prediction: 36-46; 5th place Southeast Division
Washington is the biggest question mark entering the 2010-11 season. This team is full of enigmatic players and I can see the team winning anywhere between 28-44 games this year. Rookie John Wall is not in question, as he translated a successful summer league into a strong pre-season. Wall should have a solid rookie campaign, similar to the season Brandon Jennings had last year in Milwaukee. Aside from Wall though, we really don’t know what to expect from the Wizards this season.
Gilbert Arenas transitioning to shooting guard will take some time. It will be interesting to see how he plays off of the ball and also how he handles not being the franchise player in DC. Last year after Arenas was suspended and Butler, Haywood, and Jamison dealt, Andray Blatche emerged as a budding star. He averaged 21 points, 8 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists as a starter last season. I believe he is the third best power forward in the East, behind Bosh and Boozer (remember, Amar’e is playing center this year). Yet with Arenas and Wall scoring in droves, will there be enough shots for Blatche? Wizards center JaVale McGee also looked to turn the corner last year. The question with him is whether he can use his physical gifts to become an above average rebounder. Josh Howard only played 3 games for the Wizards last year before tearing his ACL. His knee and how he rebounds from injury are the questions surrounding him. Then there is Nick Young, who at times looks like he is good enough to be a starter in this league and at other times seems to disappear on the court. The question with him is whether he can be consistent.
The biggest question mark with the team as a whole is whether they have improved defensively. The Wiz has been a porous defensive team for years, and until that changes talk of the playoffs seems premature. Still, this team has some pieces.
Position battles: None.
Don’t be surprised if… Gilbert Arenas requests a trade this season. He is on his good behavior now because he is trying to rehab his image, but I don’t know if his ego can handle being the guy next to the guy. As the adulation for John Wall increases, Arenas may wish to take his talents elsewhere.
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