It is officially official: the Wizards have to make a move. They simply have to. The last three losses to Minnesota, Memphis and Oklahoma City have finally sealed it for me. I’ve been thinking this through for the last week now. My hope was that the Milwaukee win would turn things around. I thought they were about to turn a corner: a road victory against a solid home team. I thought Caron was finally getting into the flow and Arenas was finally finding his rhythm. Then came the Minnesota loss and the Memphis loss. I made excuses: Minnesota had incentive. They were playing against former players and coaches. They had something to prove. Then there was the Corey Brewer effect. Playing inspired ball since his monstrous dunk on Derek Fisher’s head on December 11th, Brewer dropped a career-high 27 on the Wizards’ shadow defense. Next came the Memphis loss. I made more excuses: Memphis has been hot of late. But then I checked the scores and saw that Memphis was without its (arguably) top guy, Rudy Gay. The Memphis loss shook me up. Two sound ass beatings in a row to two of the youngest and supposedly sorriest teams in the league. Still, I figured…fuck it I didn’t figure anything. I was at loss. A complete loss. How do you begin to make sense of this kind of disappointment…unless you’re a Redskins fan. I sought some insight and direction from Arenas’ post-game interview. After yet again shooting his team out of the game in the fourth quarter, the Wizards star said the team “can’t catch a break.”
What? Can’t catch a break?
Since when is winning in the NBA about catching a break? Phil Mickelson having to compete against Tiger Woods year in and year out is a guy who can’t catch a break. The Knicks teams that kept falling to the Bulls in the mid and late nineties couldn’t catch a break. For a while, Grant Hill couldn’t catch a break. Greg Oden can’t catch a break. The Wizards losing back to back against Minnesota and Memphis (after back to back losses to the Kings and the Clippers a couple of weeks back) isn’t failing to catch a break.
I arrived in New Orleans yesterday for a short vacation and to bring in the new year. My plan was to actively curb my basketball jones for a couple of days, to engage with adult society rather than hole up in my apartment watching hoops. (This hasn’t been as easy it sounds. My room has a 42 inch and League Pass for a modest $11.95). Everything was going just fine until I happened to stumble across the final score of the Wizards-Thunder game. 110-98, OKC.
These three straight losses are the worst so far for one reason: they mean the young rebuilding and up and coming teams in the league have officially passed the Wizards by. Now, not only are the Wizards not among the elite or even pretty decent veteran teams who could make a run deep into the playoffs; they aren’t even better than teams whose best years are two or three years down the road.
Consider the facts:
Minnesota’s highest paid player is 24 year-old Al Jefferson at $12,000,000. It’s next highest paid player is 34 year-old Mark Blount’s expiring $8,000,000 contract (Blount is currently being paid to stay away). The Grizzly’s core is 25 and under. It’s top five players are 24 and under.
Memphis’ highest paid player is 28 year-old Zach Randolph at $16,000,000. No other player on the roster is making more than $5,000,000 this season. Randolph aside, the Memphis core is 24 and under.
OKC’s highest paid player is 29 year-old Nick Collison at $6,250,000. No other player on the Thunder is making more than $5,200,000. Collison and 26 year-old Nenad Kristic aside, OKC’s core is 23 and under.
The Wizards have six players making $6,000,000 or more. Worse, they’ve committed a ton of money to a Big Three whose average salary is about $12,000,000 and average age (27 (Arenas), 29 (Butler) and 33 (Jamison)) is 30.
These are the facts.
The Wizards’ best three players are in their prime. They are supposedly the best they will ever be right now. But even at their best they’re not good enough to beat teams that a year or two ago they would’ve whipped soundly. You may be saying that what’s so frustrating about the Wizards is that are better than this. My response is simple: you’re wrong. A good team doesn’t just have talented players who can score. A good team can close out games. A good team has poise. A good team plays with confidence down the stretch. And this is where (and why) the Wizards have proven they’re not good. Again, let’s consider the facts:
Minnesota: At the 8:56 mark the Wiz took the lead with Gil’s jumper. Five fouls, four missed jumper and three minutes later they were down 10. Game over.
Memphis: After falling behind by 10 with 5 minutes to go the Wizards fought back to tie the game at 94 with 3:26 left in regulation. The game goes to overtime. Memphis simply takes control. Game over.
OKC: Gil’s jumper gives the Wizards an 90-89 lead at the 7:43 mark in the 4th. In the next minute and a half the Thunder score two layups and a dunk. Suddenly down five, the Wizards call time to stem the bleeding. Doesn’t work. The Thunder make two defensive stops and score five more points. By the 5:07 mark the game is all but over.
In each of the losses the Wizards were either ahead of tied in the 4th and managed to lose. Why do they consistently fall apart at the end of games? The main culprit is Gilbert. Why do I know this? Because I watched the Milwaukee win. Quick 4th quarter recap: Gil enters the game early in the quarter with the Wiz up two. In the next three minutes Gil commits a turnover, misses two jumpers, and goes down on a phantom knee injury after committing an offensive foul. When hobbles back to the bench the Wizards are down two. That’s a four point swing in three minutes. As Gil sits on the bench massaging his knee and grimacing for the camera, the Wizards surge ahead and finish the game with a twelve point victory.
So it’s obvious what the problem is. Gilbert is great for three maybe three and a half quarters. But he can’t finish a game. By can’t I mean shouldn’t. But how does a team bench its star and highest paid player? What precedent is there for a guy who can’t be allowed to finish games? None. This would be a first of its kind. A twenty-two point, seven assist, five rebound guy who sits for the last seven to eight minutes of a game. Should it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not.
So what are the alternatives?
Here’s where it gets ugly. I’ve been discussing this with a few friends for the past couple of days and the conclusion I’ve come to ain’t pretty. Somebody has to go. They had a good run (which wasn’t even all that. We just look back on ’05 and ’06 fondly because it was such a pleasant surprise and feel-good story). What the Wizards brass have to understand is that it’s not that they’ve gotten worse but that the league has gotten better in the last four years. A slew of young talent has emerged and the top teams have made the moves to get even better.
Personally, I think Gil needs a fresh start. Skillwise, he’s back. He can be a star in this league. What he desperately needs right now is to be on a team where he’s not expected to take the big shots. He needs to be on a team that will allow him to build his confidence again. The Wizards aren’t that team. Washington fans expect him to be the old Gil and whether they admit it or not so do his teammates. The chances of a trade happening are slim. Gil’s contract is enormous and his upside is still in debate. Plus, the last thing the Wizards need is another player going someplace else and thriving. Remember Ben Wallace? Remember Rasheed? Remember Webber? Can’t happen again.
The next best option for a trade may be the most painful: Jamison. Go ahead, curse me. Tell me I’m an idiot. Listen, I know Jamison is one of the most consistent players in the league and has been for the last five years. I know his numbers look phenomenal night in and night out. I know he’s a model of professionalism. He keeps his mouth shut, his body fit and his game in order. But Jamison’s personality is part of the Wizards problem. Tell me this: how can a 20/10 guy be such a non-factor down the stretch? How can that same guy not demand the ball when his team needs a bucket. As I looked at the play-by-play recaps for the Minnesota, Memphis, and OKC the name noticeably absent from practically all of the late 4th quarter action was Jamison’s. How is that possible? Where does he go?
I’ll tell you the real problem with Jamison: he’s a really good role player. Dallas had it right when they brought him off the bench. That’s what Jamison is: a bench guy who can sustain your offense for long stretches when your star needs a rest. He’s not a go to player, nor does he seems especially inclined or interested in being that. He’s a lot like his predecessor at North Carolina, Rasheed Wallace, in this regard. ‘Sheed never wanted to be the star. He wanted out of Portland because he didn’t want to be the man. He wanted out of Detroit because Boston offered him the best chance at winning. (Throw in Vince Carter and I honestly wonder if Dean Smith beat the selfish gene out of his guys). I like a Jamison trade for one other reason: he deserves a chance to win before his body gives out on him and it’s not going to happen in Washington. Given Jamison’s contract, this probably won’t happen until the summer, after all of the top young guys have signed up to their new teams.
The third option would be to trade Butler: the problem is not many teams need Butler in his current form. As good as he is for the Wizards, pretty much every team in the league has a small forward/slasher/scorer already. Also, he needs the ball and space in order to get his numbers. If there’s any dime a dozen player in today’s NBA it’s the 6’6” small forward. Given, Butler’s contract (another year after this one at $10,000,000) I doubt anyone would want to take it on unless the Wizards give up someone McGee as well, which would be disastrous.
The fourth option would be to acquire a glue guy. The Wizards will never openly admit it but letting Jared Jeffries go four years ago was perhaps the worst move the team made in last five years. I hate Jared Jeffries’ game. He’s a horrible offensive player. He’s an atrocious shooter. He’s weak around the basket. But, dammit, that dude impacts a game in so many ways that go unnoticed. As good as Andre Blatche and Earl Boykins have played this season, the Wizards would have five or six more wins (at least) with Jared Jeffries playing those minutes. Why? Because they don’t need scoring. They’ve got plenty of people to put the ball in the hole. The Wiz need someone to put a hand in the face of the opposing team’s best shooter They need someone to box out offensive rebounding beasts like Zach Randolph. They need someone who won’t just jack up a shot because he’s open, someone who will block a shot, take a charge (he’s leading the league in this category), get a steal, dive for a loose ball. The problem is glue guys are a premium in the league. Teams aren’t willing to part with them for nothing or next to nothing. Which is why when you have one, you keep him.
The Wizards probably won’t make any major be before the summer. They’re in the fortunate position of residing in a city where the Redskins are king so no one will demand any better than this. Plus, historically, the Wizards are a conservative organization during the season. They tend to wait until the summertime to take on bad contracts, sign long-term deals with past their prime players and miss out on the free agent market altogether.
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It is officially official: the Wizards have to make a move. They simply have to. The last three losses to Minnesota, Memphis and Oklahoma City have finally sealed it for me. I’ve been thinking this through for the last week now. My hope was that the Milwaukee win would turn things around. I thought they were about to turn a corner: a road victory against a solid home team. I thought Caron was finally getting into the flow and Arenas was finally finding his rhythm. Then came the Minnesota loss and the Memphis loss. I made excuses: Minnesota had incentive. They were playing against former players and coaches. They had something to prove. Then there was the Corey Brewer effect. Playing inspired ball since his monstrous dunk on Derek Fisher’s head on December 11th, Brewer dropped a career-high 27 on the Wizards’ shadow defense. Next came the Memphis loss. I made more excuses: Memphis has been hot of late. But then I checked the scores and saw that Memphis was without its (arguably) top guy, Rudy Gay. The Memphis loss shook me up. Two sound ass beatings in a row to two of the youngest and supposedly sorriest teams in the league. Still, I figured…fuck it I didn’t figure anything. I was at loss. A complete loss. How do you begin to make sense of this kind of disappointment…unless you’re a Redskins fan. I sought some insight and direction from Arenas’ post-game interview. After yet again shooting his team out of the game in the fourth quarter, the Wizards star said the team “can’t catch a break.”
What? Can’t catch a break?
Since when is winning in the NBA about catching a break? Phil Mickelson having to compete against Tiger Woods year in and year out is a guy who can’t catch a break. The Knicks teams that kept falling to the Bulls in the mid and late nineties couldn’t catch a break. For a while, Grant Hill couldn’t catch a break. Greg Oden can’t catch a break. The Wizards losing back to back against Minnesota and Memphis (after back to back losses to the Kings and the Clippers a couple of weeks back) isn’t failing to catch a break.
I arrived in New Orleans yesterday for a short vacation and to bring in the new year. My plan was to actively curb my basketball jones for a couple of days, to engage with adult society rather than hole up in my apartment watching hoops. (This hasn’t been as easy it sounds. My room has a 42 inch and League Pass for a modest $11.95). Everything was going just fine until I happened to stumble across the final score of the Wizards-Thunder game. 110-98, OKC.
These three straight losses are the worst so far for one reason: they mean the young rebuilding and up and coming teams in the league have officially passed the Wizards by. Now, not only are the Wizards not among the elite or even pretty decent veteran teams who could make a run deep into the playoffs; they aren’t even better than teams whose best years are two or three years down the road.
Consider the facts:
Minnesota’s highest paid player is 24 year-old Al Jefferson at $12,000,000. It’s next highest paid player is 34 year-old Mark Blount’s expiring $8,000,000 contract (Blount is currently being paid to stay away). The Grizzly’s core is 25 and under. It’s top five players are 24 and under.
Memphis’ highest paid player is 28 year-old Zach Randolph at $16,000,000. No other player on the roster is making more than $5,000,000 this season. Randolph aside, the Memphis core is 24 and under.
OKC’s highest paid player is 29 year-old Nick Collison at $6,250,000. No other player on the Thunder is making more than $5,200,000. Collison and 26 year-old Nenad Kristic aside, OKC’s core is 23 and under.
The Wizards have six players making $6,000,000 or more. Worse, they’ve committed a ton of money to a Big Three whose average salary is about $12,000,000 and average age (27 (Arenas), 29 (Butler) and 33 (Jamison)) is 30.
These are the facts.
The Wizards’ best three players are in their prime. They are supposedly the best they will ever be right now. But even at their best they’re not good enough to beat teams that a year or two ago they would’ve whipped soundly. You may be saying that what’s so frustrating about the Wizards is that are better than this. My response is simple: you’re wrong. A good team doesn’t just have talented players who can score. A good team can close out games. A good team has poise. A good team plays with confidence down the stretch. And this is where (and why) the Wizards have proven they’re not good. Again, let’s consider the facts:
Minnesota: At the 8:56 mark the Wiz took the lead with Gil’s jumper. Five fouls, four missed jumper and three minutes later they were down 10. Game over.
Memphis: After falling behind by 10 with 5 minutes to go the Wizards fought back to tie the game at 94 with 3:26 left in regulation. The game goes to overtime. Memphis simply takes control. Game over.
OKC: Gil’s jumper gives the Wizards an 90-89 lead at the 7:43 mark in the 4th. In the next minute and a half the Thunder score two layups and a dunk. Suddenly down five, the Wizards call time to stem the bleeding. Doesn’t work. The Thunder make two defensive stops and score five more points. By the 5:07 mark the game is all but over.
In each of the losses the Wizards were either ahead of tied in the 4th and managed to lose. Why do they consistently fall apart at the end of games? The main culprit is Gilbert. Why do I know this? Because I watched the Milwaukee win. Quick 4th quarter recap: Gil enters the game early in the quarter with the Wiz up two. In the next three minutes Gil commits a turnover, misses two jumpers, and goes down on a phantom knee injury after committing an offensive foul. When hobbles back to the bench the Wizards are down two. That’s a four point swing in three minutes. As Gil sits on the bench massaging his knee and grimacing for the camera, the Wizards surge ahead and finish the game with a twelve point victory.
So it’s obvious what the problem is. Gilbert is great for three maybe three and a half quarters. But he can’t finish a game. By can’t I mean shouldn’t. But how does a team bench its star and highest paid player? What precedent is there for a guy who can’t be allowed to finish games? None. This would be a first of its kind. A twenty-two point, seven assist, five rebound guy who sits for the last seven to eight minutes of a game. Should it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not.
So what are the alternatives?
Here’s where it gets ugly. I’ve been discussing this with a few friends for the past couple of days and the conclusion I’ve come to ain’t pretty. Somebody has to go. They had a good run (which wasn’t even all that. We just look back on ’05 and ’06 fondly because it was such a pleasant surprise and feel-good story). What the Wizards brass have to understand is that it’s not that they’ve gotten worse but that the league has gotten better in the last four years. A slew of young talent has emerged and the top teams have made the moves to get even better.
Personally, I think Gil needs a fresh start. Skillwise, he’s back. He can be a star in this league. What he desperately needs right now is to be on a team where he’s not expected to take the big shots. He needs to be on a team that will allow him to build his confidence again. The Wizards aren’t that team. Washington fans expect him to be the old Gil and whether they admit it or not so do his teammates. The chances of a trade happening are slim. Gil’s contract is enormous and his upside is still in debate. Plus, the last thing the Wizards need is another player going someplace else and thriving. Remember Ben Wallace? Remember Rasheed? Remember Webber? Can’t happen again.
The next best option for a trade may be the most painful: Jamison. Go ahead, curse me. Tell me I’m an idiot. Listen, I know Jamison is one of the most consistent players in the league and has been for the last five years. I know his numbers look phenomenal night in and night out. I know he’s a model of professionalism. He keeps his mouth shut, his body fit and his game in order. But Jamison’s personality is part of the Wizards problem. Tell me this: how can a 20/10 guy be such a non-factor down the stretch? How can that same guy not demand the ball when his team needs a bucket. As I looked at the play-by-play recaps for the Minnesota, Memphis, and OKC the name noticeably absent from practically all of the late 4th quarter action was Jamison’s. How is that possible? Where does he go?
I’ll tell you the real problem with Jamison: he’s a really good role player. Dallas had it right when they brought him off the bench. That’s what Jamison is: a bench guy who can sustain your offense for long stretches when your star needs a rest. He’s not a go to player, nor does he seems especially inclined or interested in being that. He’s a lot like his predecessor at North Carolina, Rasheed Wallace, in this regard. ‘Sheed never wanted to be the star. He wanted out of Portland because he didn’t want to be the man. He wanted out of Detroit because Boston offered him the best chance at winning. (Throw in Vince Carter and I honestly wonder if Dean Smith beat the selfish gene out of his guys). I like a Jamison trade for one other reason: he deserves a chance to win before his body gives out on him and it’s not going to happen in Washington. Given Jamison’s contract, this probably won’t happen until the summer, after all of the top young guys have signed up to their new teams.
The third option would be to trade Butler: the problem is not many teams need Butler in his current form. As good as he is for the Wizards, pretty much every team in the league has a small forward/slasher/scorer already. Also, he needs the ball and space in order to get his numbers. If there’s any dime a dozen player in today’s NBA it’s the 6’6” small forward. Given, Butler’s contract (another year after this one at $10,000,000) I doubt anyone would want to take it on unless the Wizards give up someone McGee as well, which would be disastrous.
The fourth option would be to acquire a glue guy. The Wizards will never openly admit it but letting Jared Jeffries go four years ago was perhaps the worst move the team made in last five years. I hate Jared Jeffries’ game. He’s a horrible offensive player. He’s an atrocious shooter. He’s weak around the basket. But, dammit, that dude impacts a game in so many ways that go unnoticed. As good as Andre Blatche and Earl Boykins have played this season, the Wizards would have five or six more wins (at least) with Jared Jeffries playing those minutes. Why? Because they don’t need scoring. They’ve got plenty of people to put the ball in the hole. The Wiz need someone to put a hand in the face of the opposing team’s best shooter They need someone to box out offensive rebounding beasts like Zach Randolph. They need someone who won’t just jack up a shot because he’s open, someone who will block a shot, take a charge (he’s leading the league in this category), get a steal, dive for a loose ball. The problem is glue guys are a premium in the league. Teams aren’t willing to part with them for nothing or next to nothing. Which is why when you have one, you keep him.
The Wizards probably won’t make any major be before the summer. They’re in the fortunate position of residing in a city where the Redskins are king so no one will demand any better than this. Plus, historically, the Wizards are a conservative organization during the season. They tend to wait until the summertime to take on bad contracts, sign long-term deals with past their prime players and miss out on the free agent market altogether.
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